More Baseball Happenings

Few quick happenings I picked up on from other blog sites, mostly MLBTR

Phil Rogers from the Chicago Tribune has some comments that seem completely unfounded. Namely that Johan Santana is demanding 8 years much like Barry Zito. I don't see him getting it from Minnesota. Minnesota is known to be stingy with their money and the fact that they keep making the post season allows for them to have the revenue to sign Santana for probably 6-7. I don't see them going 8.

Both Johan and Torii Hunter are going to be very difficult to trade. If Santana places top 3 in the Cy Young voting (and barring a blown out arm, he will), he gets a full no-trade clause. The Twins had to give it to him to sweeten the deal (much like Boston did for V-Tek and boy he better throw out 100 runners this year to make what we're paying him because he sure won't be hitting for it. Don't get me wrong, I love Jason. He's a tremendous catcher, a clubhouse leader, and he works so hard for our staff, but if he can't break the Mendoza line, then you run the risk of putting a struggling hitter up with the game on the line) and even if the Twins can't resign Santana, they shouldn't lose TOO much sleep over it as they've probably already bought his best years (unless he's drinking the same stuff as Roger Clemens).

Hunter has a partial no trade that includes the Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs, D-Rays, and Blue Jays. So pretty much, his no-trade covers the two teams that are going to be pushing hard for a marquee FA CF come this off-season (Boston and the Cubs). I've said this before and I've received plenty of heat for it, but Hunter's best years are behind him. PECOTA is fairly kind to him, seeing his power numbers drop steadily all the way to age 35 (as is standard of PECOTA) and they also have his average dipping a bit (only 12 points in 5 years is hardly much to complain about). What raised the flag for me was his PAs (plate appearances). PECOTA sees a sharp decline (almost 70) next year followed by a decline of 30, then 50, then 100 by age 35. They expect him to see 538 PAs this year, but only 296 by age 35 (a drop of over 240 PAs in 5 years). That seems to concern me. I'll go on the record saying I'm not a complete stat junkie, but seeing a prediction like that would worry me as a GM if I were looking at projections like that.

Also, more news out of Cleveland as the Plain Dealer Indians Insider is reporting that GM Mark Shapiro will NOT be negotiating mid-season with Travis Hafner. The surprising thing is that Shapiro claims talks were positive and he expects to be able to sign Hafner and Sabathia.

The interesting thing is when it comes to the DH position, I don't trust projections. They age very well. Hafner is a naturally large guy at 6'3 240 so it's safe to say that his production doesn't dip too much. Not having to work the field will also help him age as a player. PECOTA would give Haf just under 72 million over 5 years (which if you punch that up, you'll get about 14.4 annually, of course, that's never the case since most contracts now a days are back loaded). Still when you consider that David Ortiz makes 13.5 million in 2007 on his deal and he has an option for 12.5 in 2011 (one I'm almost certain the Red Sox will pick up. Papi is a big guy naturally and as long as he keeps his bat speed, he'll keep putting up 40/120 every year just like Manny).

When you consider that Some say Sabathia will command a Zambrano-like deal of 5/80, that would be about 41 million just between Westbrook, Sabathia, and Hafner. I still see Hafner being the odd-man out, but if the Tribe can put together a nice playoff run for extra revenue, they could sign them both. This will be a story I'm going to watch.

Also, what's up with the Angels right now? I know historically they haven't played the Red Sox well recently, but another 7-2 crushing by the Sox today finished off the sweep. In total, the series was 25-3 Red Sox. If you're an Angels fan, you have to be a bit worried right now. If you're a Red Sox fan, so far so good for Josh Beckett. He's maintained his 1.50 ERA for the season and he's been solid so far. I'm a big advocate on "let's see what happens in June/July" so..let's see what happens in June/July.

That's all for now. Enjoy.